• Sudan, occupied Palestinian territory and South Sudan top the IRC’s annual humanitarian crisis prediction for 2026.

  • Lebanon, Haiti and Colombia are among the countries to watch for 2026 as risks mount.

  • The 20 countries on the watchlist account for only 12% of the world's population, but are home to 89% of all people in humanitarian need. They are projected to host more than half of the world’s extreme poor by 2029. 

  • As global funding for humanitarian aid has plummeted by 50% in the last year, the EU is one of the few donors to ramp up funding with its proposed €25 billion humanitarian aid budget under the next MFF.

Brussels, Belgium, 16 December 2025 —  The International Rescue Committee (IRC) today released its annual Emergency Watchlist, identifying the 20 countries most at risk of worsening humanitarian crises in 2026. The top three countries on this year’s list - Sudan, the occupied Palestinian territory, and South Sudan - offer stark examples of the devastating impact of what the IRC calls a “New World Disorder”.

The Emergency Watchlist paints a bleak picture of the current global context, where unprecedented levels of humanitarian need are being met with drastic aid cuts. There are currently more active wars than at any point since World War II, some 239 million people need humanitarian aid, more than 117 million people are forcibly displaced, and 2025 is on track to be the deadliest ever year for humanitarians.

Yet rather than stepping up to meet the moment, global funding for humanitarian aid has been cut by 50% in the last year. These reductions could cause 1.8 million additional deaths in 2025 alone, including 700,000 children under five.

The EU is one of the few donors to scale up its financial support, with its proposed humanitarian aid budget set to reach €25 billion for the years from 2028 to 2034.

However, it is essential that this new budget is used to dramatically scale up support to fragile and conflict-affected states. The EU’s contribution to Watchlist countries dropped to just 8% of its foreign aid spend in 2023 - with $3.3 billion marking its lowest share to Watchlist countries since 2013. This is a lower portion of the EU’s total aid budget than the US (19%) and UK (14%), plus some of its own member states such as Sweden (23%) and Germany (10%). More broadly, the EU disbursed 15% of its foreign aid to fragile and conflict-affected states in 2023. 

Imogen Sudbery, IRC Belgium’s Executive Director said: “As humanitarian needs spiral and global funding to address them slumps to new lows, the EU faces one of its toughest tests. The Commission’s move to scale up its humanitarian aid budget under the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) shows its determination to meet the moment. Now it is vital that member states and the European Parliament support these budget proposals, and ensure that it is not rolled back as negotiations continue. The next step will be to ensure the budget is delivered directly to the countries that need it most - including those on the IRC’s Watchlist which received just 8% of the EU’s foreign aid budget in 2023.

“While the humanitarian outlook is dismal, the new MFF presents the EU with opportunities which it cannot afford to miss - the chance to support the most vulnerable communities to withstand the impacts of this new era, the chance to protect its own citizens from crises which do not stop at national borders, the chance to establish itself as a humanitarian leader on the world stage, and the chance to help shape a new aid system which is effective, sustainable and fit for the future. 

The international order is at a crossroads - whether it emerges stronger or in even greater disorder will depend largely on whether the EU chooses to step up.”

The 2026 Emergency Watchlist warns that the rise in needs and collapse of global support are not just a humanitarian failure - they are the direct consequence of a "New World Disorder" defined by intensifying geopolitical rivalries, shifting alliances, and transactional diplomacy. This emerging disorder is driving the trends devastating Watchlist countries. But this year’s IRC Watchlist makes clear: what begins in crisis-affected states will not stay there. 

David Miliband, President and CEO of the IRC, said: “What the IRC is seeing on the ground is not a tragic accident. The world is not simply failing to respond to crisis; actions and words are producing, prolonging, and rewarding it. The scale of the crisis in Sudan, ranking first on this year’s Watchlist for the third year in a row and now the largest humanitarian crisis ever recorded, is a signature of this disorder. 

“This year’s Watchlist is a testament to misery but also a warning: without urgent action from those with power to make a difference, 2026 risks becoming the most dangerous year yet. Civilians in Watchlist countries are paying the price today. The IRC stands with them to deliver practical solutions that save lives and restore hope. But the New World Disorder is here, and winds are picking up everywhere. Disorder begets disorder. The question is whether to respond with vision, an opportunity for reinvention or with further retreat.”

The IRC is calling on the EU and its member states to take five clear actions in order to address this “New World Disorder”:

  1. Restore respect for International Humanitarian Law (IHL): The EU and its member states must impose costs on those who violate the laws of war, using all levers of accountability. 
  2. Guarantee safe access for humanitarian aid: The EU and its member states should strengthen further the humanitarian access capabilities of frontline responders, firewall access from political and military negotiations, and invest in their own humanitarian diplomatic capacity.   
  3. Prioritise aid funding to maximise impact and sustainability: The EU should direct at least 60% of official development assistance (ODA) to fragile and conflict-affected states, while delivering on commitments to flexible, multi-year funding.  
  4. Invest in proven, high-impact solutions: The aid system must scale up proven, cost-effective solutions like cash assistance, preventative health measures, and simplified treatment of child malnutrition. 
  5. Defend the rights of refugees and displaced people: The EU and its member states should uphold International Refugee Law, particularly the right to asylum, and expand legal pathways for people to reach safety. 

[ENDS]

Notes to editors:

The full IRC Emergency Watchlist 2026 report can be accessed here.

This year’s top ten Watchlist countries are:

  1. Sudan
  2. occupied Palestinian territory
  3. South Sudan
  4. Ethiopia
  5. Haiti
  6. Myanmar
  7. DRC
  8. Mali
  9. Burkina Faso
  10. Lebanon

Second half:

About the IRC

The International Rescue Committee (IRC) helps people affected by humanitarian crises—including the climate crisis—to survive, recover, and rebuild their lives. Founded in 1933 at the call of Albert Einstein, the IRC is at work in over 40 countries and in 28 U.S. cities helping people to restore health, safety, education, economic wellbeing, and power.