London, United Kingdom, December 15, 2025 — New insights released today by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) are warning of a “New World Disorder” in which conflict is used for profit, global cooperation is unravelling, and overseas aid - including from Britain - is being cut just as crises surge.
The warning comes as part of the IRC’s annual ‘Emergency Watchlist,’ which identifies the 20 countries most at risk of worsening humanitarian crises. For 2026, it is topped by Sudan, the occupied Palestinian territory (including Gaza) and South Sudan, with Ethiopia, Haiti, Myanmar, DRC, Mali, Burkina Faso and Lebanon making up the Top 10.
Released just weeks after the UK government's proposed shake-up of the asylum system, the Emergency Watchlist reveals a dangerous divergence between surging crises and shrinking support - one that is leaving the international humanitarian system underfunded and unprepared.
Despite being home to just 12% of the world's population, these 20 countries now account for:
- Almost nine in ten people (89%) in humanitarian need.
- Over half (50.3%) of global extreme poverty by 2029 - up from one third just a decade ago.
- Four of the top eight nationalities crossing the Channel in small boats (Afghanistan, Sudan, Syria and Yemen).
Conditions are deteriorating as funding collapses, leaving aid agencies with fewer tools to respond. 83% of USAID programmes have been cancelled, and global donors like the UK, France and Germany are following suit. This comes as 117 million people are forcibly displaced worldwide and nearly 40 million are facing such severe hunger that urgent action is required to save lives.
The Emergency Watchlist notes that the post-WWII international system - once grounded in rules and rights - is being replaced by a "New World Disorder" defined by geopolitical rivalry, transactional deal-making, and conflict as a tool for power and profit.
David Miliband, President and CEO of the IRC, said,
“What the IRC is seeing on the ground is not a tragic accident. The world is not simply failing to respond to crisis; actions and words are producing, prolonging, and rewarding it. The scale of the crisis in Sudan, ranking first on this year’s Watchlist for the third year in a row and now the largest humanitarian crisis ever recorded, is a signature of this disorder.
“This year’s Watchlist is a testament to misery but also a warning: without urgent action from those with power to make a difference, 2026 risks becoming the most dangerous year yet. Civilians in Watchlist countries are paying the price today. The IRC stands with them to deliver practical solutions that save lives and restore hope. But the New World Disorder is here, and winds are picking up everywhere. Disorder begets disorder. The question is whether to respond with vision, an opportunity for reinvention or with further retreat.”
Flora Alexander, Executive Director of IRC UK, said,
“The UK cannot afford to sit on the sidelines. As the UN Security Council penholder on Sudan and a global convener, Britain has the leverage to lead. By putting humanitarian access and civilian protection at the heart of foreign policy, and taking steps to dismantle war economies, the UK can make a real contribution to improving the lives of those in Watchlist countries. However, recent aid cuts send the opposite signal: that when crises escalate, Britain steps back. Six of the Watchlist’s top 10 countries are in Africa, where UK aid cuts risk biting the deepest.
“This isn’t just about crises overseas. Four of the top eight nationalities crossing the Channel in small boats come from Watchlist countries: Afghanistan, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. These dangerous journeys are driven by conflict and crisis - and a lack of safe pathways to protection. The UK must expand safe routes, uphold the right to asylum, and target aid where it is needed most. This is a moment for UK leadership: to save lives, offer protection to those fleeing conflict, and uphold the values Britain stands for.”
Despite the challenges revealed in the Emergency Watchlist, the IRC insists that solutions exist and is calling on the UK government to step up in reversing some of the worst trends identified.
Recommendations include:
- Leading on Sudan with real leverage. The UK should use its influence - at the UN Security Council and beyond - to push for urgent action: open humanitarian access, increase flexible funding for frontline aid, and drive diplomacy that tackles the war economy which is fuelling atrocities.
- Coordinating with the EU to dismantle conflict economies. Align sanctions, anti-money-laundering measures and enforcement to raise the cost of violence in Sudan, DRC, Myanmar and beyond. Britain should lead in building coalitions that make war less profitable.
- Putting humanitarian diplomacy at the heart of UK foreign policy. Treat humanitarian access as a non-negotiable cross-government priority and invest in UK humanitarian diplomatic capacity to engage with conflict parties to protect access in the hardest-hit crises.
- Refocus UK aid where it counts. The UK should prioritise fragile and conflict-affected states - and scale proven, cost-effective interventions like cash assistance, immunisation, and simplified malnutrition treatment.
- Upholding the right to claim asylum and creating safe routes so that people fleeing war and persecution are not forced to take dangerous journeys to seek safety.
NOTES TO EDITORS
The full IRC Emergency Watchlist 2026 report can be accessed here.
This year’s top 10 Watchlist countries are:
- Sudan
- Occupied Palestinian Territory
- South Sudan
- Ethiopia
- Haiti
- Myanmar
- DRC
- Mali
- Burkina Faso
- Lebanon
Other Watchlist countries, in alphabetical order:
- Afghanistan
- Cameroon
- Chad
- Colombia
- Niger
- Nigeria
- Somalia
- Syria
- Ukraine
- Yemen
About the IRC
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) helps people affected by humanitarian crises—including the climate crisis—to survive, recover, and rebuild their lives. Founded in 1933 at the call of Albert Einstein, the IRC is at work in over 40 countries and in 28 U.S. cities helping people to restore health, safety, education, economic wellbeing, and power.
Key findings from the Emergency Watchlist 2026
- Top Watchlist countries: Sudan, occupied Palestinian territory, South Sudan.
- Crises are escalating while support collapses. Global humanitarian funding has fallen by around 50% year‑on‑year, with severe programme cancellations across major donors, just as needs spike.
- Conflicts are more numerous and longer‑lasting. The world is experiencing more active wars than at any time since World War II, and modern wars now last roughly twice as long as in previous decades, becoming deadlier and more destructive.
- Aid is being weaponised. Access to life‑saving assistance is increasingly blocked or bargained away, with impunity for violations of international humanitarian law. Elevating humanitarian diplomacy is essential to protect civilians and keep aid flowing.
- Transnational war economies drive violence. External sponsors, illicit finance and resource extraction fuel conflicts from Sudan to the DRC and Myanmar, demanding coordinated financial pressure and sanctions to disrupt profit‑from‑war networks.