274 million people worldwide will be dependent on humanitarian aid in 2022: from Afghanistan to Ethiopia and Yemen to Myanmar and Syria. Never before has the suffering worldwide been so great. The IRC's Emergency Watchlist reveals the ten worst humanitarian crises in the world expected in 2022 and what must happen to end the suffering.

Afghanistan is in first place, Ethiopia in second place, followed by Yemen in third place. The “Top 10” of the watch list also include Myanmar and Syria as well as five other African countries: Nigeria, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Sudan.

Most Watchlist countries–the top ten in particular–have experienced almost non-stop conflict over the last decade, hampering their ability to respond to global challenges like COVID-19 and climate change. These 20 countries are home to 10% of the global population but account for 89% of those in need of humanitarian aid worldwide. 

Displaced families, and in particular women and girls, are disproportionately affected by the crises, which are more than a series of unfortunate events, stresses David Miliband, IRC president and CEO. “The story told by the Watchlist makes a bigger argument,” he writes in the report, “not just that there are more poor and more people forcibly displaced, but that the scale and nature of humanitarian distress around the world constitutes a system failure.”

The IRC has produced a Watchlist each year for over a decade. Over this time, it has evolved from a purely internal aid for emergency preparedness planning into a public report that warns global leaders, policymakers and concerned citizens not just where crises are deepening but why they are deepening and what can be done about it.

The statistics, methodology, detailed analysis, and recommendations for action, read the full 2022 Emergency Watchlist

Here are the ten worst humanitarian crises at a glance: 

 

10. Humanitarian crisis in Sudan: Political tensions amid regional drought and conflict

Population: 44.9 million

People in need: 14.3 million

People internally displaced: 3 million

Sudan enters 2022 facing multiple challenges. The military removed civilian leaders in October 2021, and the resulting political uncertainty could destabilise peace efforts with armed groups. Environmental shocks, economic crisis and COVID-19 restrictions are driving inflation.

Political unrest drives people away from their homes and into places like Tunaydbah camp in Sudan.
Political unrest drives people away from their homes and into places like Tunaydbah camp in Sudan.

Humanitarian risks

The IRC response

The IRC relaunched its programmes in Sudan in 2019, which currently include water and sanitation services and integrated protection support for women and child refugees. The IRC also builds and rehabilitates health facilities to provide reproductive health care and facilitate the treatment and prevention of communicable diseases, including COVID-19. Learn more about the IRC’s Sudan response.

 

9. Syria—Economic crisis compounds a decade of war

Population: 21.7 million

People in need: 14 million

People internally displaced: 6.8 million

Syrians are enduring the worst economic crisis since the war began, with record levels of food insecurity and rapid inflation. At the same time, water shortages in northern Syria are creating drought-like conditions for millions and jeopardising already compromised health and water systems. There is an enduring risk of a major military offensive targeting areas outside government control.

Ten-year-old Omar's education has been disrupted by repeated displacements and COVID-19 restrictions in Syria.
Ten-year-old Omar's education has been disrupted by repeated displacements and COVID-19 restrictions in Syria.

Humanitarian risks

The IRC response

The IRC has been working in Syria since 2012, promoting economic recovery with job training, apprenticeships and small business support. IRC teams support early childhood development and provide counselling and protection services for women and children, particularly for survivors of violence. We support health facilities and mobile health teams with lifesaving trauma services, and with primary, reproductive and mental health services. The IRC also supports Syrian refugees in Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon. Learn more about the IRC’s Syria response.

 

8. Somalia—Humanitarian access worsens as needs rise

Population: 16.4 million

People in need: 7.7 million

People internally displaced: 2.9 million

Somalia has been on the Watchlist for nine consecutive years but has moved into the Top 10 due to escalating political tensions with risk of renewed violence. Somalia also ranks among the top five internal displacement crises. Drought conditions are expected to worsen.

A mother brings her child to receive nutrition support at the IRC's health clinic in an IDP camp.
A mother brings her child to receive nutrition support at the IRC's health clinic in an IDP camp.

Humanitarian risks

The IRC response

The IRC, assisting in Somalia since 1981, supports economic wellbeing through job training, food vouchers and direct cash assistance to farmers, shepherds and small business owners. We also partner with communities to identify, plan and manage development projects. Our work with children and women is informed by the promotion and protection of human rights. Learn more about the IRC’s Somalia response.

 

7. Myanmar—Violent deadlock leaves millions in humanitarian need

Population: 54.8 million

People in need: 14.4 million

Score for access constraints: 5/5 

The events of February 2021 sparked a cycle of armed clashes and violence that has caused significant new displacement and humanitarian need across the country. The economic impacts of this instability, combined with the impact of COVID-19, are projected to push millions into poverty in 2022.

Ma Than Than Win pumps water from the well in Phwe Yar Kone camp, Myanmar.
Ma Than Than Win pumps water from the well in Phwe Yar Kone camp, Myanmar.

Humanitarian risks 

The IRC response

The IRC began work in Myanmar in 2008, providing humanitarian relief in the wake of Cyclone Nargis. Since then, the IRC has expanded its work to provide health care, protection, women’s protection and empowerment, and water and sanitation, as well as shelter and emergency relief materials to newly displaced populations. Learn more about the IRC’s Myanmar response.

 

6. Democratic Republic of Congo—Conflict and disease compound humanitarian crisis

Population: 92.4 million

People in need: 27 million

People internally displaced: 5.6 million

Conflict in Congo is especially volatile in the eastern provinces of Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu, where consecutive Ebola outbreaks have strained a weak health system. Political tensions in Kinshasa could set the stage for violent clashes leading up to the 2023 general elections.

Women in North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of The Congo have banded together to grow crops, using the shared income to pay for their children's schooling.
Women in North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of The Congo have banded together to grow crops, using the shared income to pay for their children's schooling.

Humanitarian risks

The IRC response

The IRC has operated in Congo for over two decades, providing lifesaving health care, including reproductive health services, as well as water and sanitation, education, and support for survivors of violence. We work with communities on peacebuilding projects aimed at conflict reduction and economic recovery. In recent years, the IRC has launched emergency responses to contain Ebola, including the latest outbreaks in eastern Congo. Learn more about the IRC’s Congo response.

 

5. South Sudan—Regional tensions raise risks

Population: 11.4 million

People in need: 8.4 million

Rank for women’s equality: 165 of 170 countries

South Sudan marked a decade of independence in 2021, but the country has been wracked by violence throughout that entire period. While conflict remains far lower than the peak in 2013-2014, the World Food Programme warns that food insecurity is at its worst levels since independence, underscoring the combined impact of natural shocks, COVID-19 and long-term damage to South Sudan’s economy.

Abuk brought her daughter, Nyirou, 4, to an IRC-supported clinic where she was treated for illness and malnourishment after their home flooded in South Sudan.
Abuk brought her daughter, Nyirou, 4, to an IRC-supported clinic where she was treated for illness and malnourishment after their home flooded in South Sudan.

Humanitarian risks

The IRC response

The IRC is one of the largest aid providers in South Sudan, operating there for over 30 years. We deliver emergency assistance and support at-risk populations in hard-to-reach areas. Our health response the training of local health workers and provision of sexual and reproductive health services, nutrition programmes, and water and sanitation services. We also provide support to youth, children and survivors of sexual violence in addition to community-level engagement to promote peaceful coexistence. Learn more about the IRC’s South Sudan response.

 

4. Nigeria—Growing insecurity across the country

Population: 211.4 million

People in need:8.3 million

Score for access constraints: 5/5 

More than 12 years of conflict and militant activity in northeast Nigeria has garnered global attention, but unrest and insecurity are spreading in other parts of the country too. Criminal activity and conflict in the northwest have sparked a growing humanitarian crisis, and separatist activity in the southeast has become increasingly violent. The various security crises in Nigeria are a manifestation of underlying tensions related to poverty, social marginalisation, and climate change in a country projected to double in population by 2050.

Amina stands outside the IRC's SAFE session in North-East Nigeria
Amina attends the IRC's SAFE sessions which supports adolescents in conflict-affected North-East Nigeria region by teaching them how to manage their emotions as well as life skills such as sewing.

Humanitarian risks 

The IRC response

The IRC started working in Nigeria in response to severe flooding in 2012. Currently, we support programmes in health, nutrition, education, water and sanitation, and protection for women, men, girls and boys who are internally displaced and in host communities. Over the next three years, the IRC plans to scale up its humanitarian assistance in both the northeast and northwest. Learn more about the IRC’s Nigeria response.

 

3. Yemen—Cumulative impact of protracted conflict 

Population: 30.5 million 

People in need: 20.7 million

Rank for women’s equality: 168 of 170 countries

Yemen drops from the top of the IRC’s Watchlist for the first time in three years not because of an improvement in the humanitarian situation but because crises in other countries are worsening even more rapidly. With humanitarian access heavily restricted in many areas, Yemenis will face increased needs in 2022.

Aisha, 10, and Na'aem, 11, help to cook for Aisha's family in an IDP camp in Yemen.
Aisha, 10, and Na'aem, 11, help to cook for Aisha's family in an IDP camp in Yemen.

Humanitarian risks 

Economic collapse and the destruction of health, education and other critical systems due to years of conflict will continue to push Yemenis deeper into need. Since 2015, 229 schools and 148 hospitals have been damaged during fighting or used for military purposes.

The lack of diplomatic progress ensures continued conflict; localised ceasefires have not yet translated into a wider peace process.

The humanitarian response will continue to be limited by access restrictions imposed by all sides to the conflict.

The IRC response

The IRC has worked in Yemen since 2012. We support primary health facilities and mobile health teams, including in hard-to-reach areas, and provide programming for general outpatient care, reproductive health and acute malnutrition, as well as water and sanitation services, education for out-of-school children, and psychosocial and case management services for women and children. Learn more about the IRC’s Yemen response.

 

2. Ethiopia—climate change and conflict drives hunger crises

Population: 117.9 million 

People in need:25.9 million

People internally displaced: 4.2 million

Climate change and continued conflict in Tigray and now the neighbouring Amhara and Afar regions have pushed Ethiopia ever higher on the Watchlist. The United States estimates that 900,000 people face famine conditions in Tigray, although these figures cannot be verified due to restrictions on humanitarian access. There’s no doubt, however, that Ethiopia is exposed to the impact of climate change, which will drive up needs for millions across the country.

Halima raises awareness of the rights of women and girls in Helowyn camp in Ethiopia.
Halima raises awareness of the rights of women and girls in Helowyn camp in Ethiopia.

Humanitarian risks

The IRC response

Since 2000, the IRC has provided assistance to refugees living in camps and to Ethiopian communities throughout the country affected by drought, flooding, conflict and COVID-19. With our local partners, we distribute cash and basic emergency supplies, and build and maintain safe water supply systems and sanitation facilities. The IRC also supports government partners and community workers in primary health care clinics, constructs classrooms and trains teachers, and provides livelihoods-related training and job opportunities to youth and at-risk households. Learn more about the IRC’s Ethiopia response.

 

1. Afghanistan—The crisis after the conflict

Population: 41.7 million

People in need: 24.4 million

Rank for women’s equality: 170 of 170 countries

In August 2021, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (commonly known as the Taliban) took control of Afghanistan. International donors immediately suspended most non-humanitarian funding and froze billions of dollars in assets. Without this funding, the economy has spiralled downward. Any attempt by Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) to take advantage of the shift in power portends violence and civilian harm. Meanwhile, Afghanistan faces ongoing drought and a possible fourth wave of COVID-19.

Fatima Khalek sits beside the bag of grain she purchased with IRC cash assistance.
Fatima, who lives in Afghanistan, was able to purchase a bag of grain with IRC cash assistance.

Humanitarian risks 

The IRC response

The IRC has been working in Afghanistan for over three decades, providing education, protection, water and sanitation, and economic recovery programmes. We support over 60 health facilities and provide information and training sessions about COVID-19. In recent years, the IRC has become a leader in women’s protection and empowerment in Afghanistan. Learn more about the IRC’s Afghanistan response.

How you can help 

More than half of Afghanistan's population are facing acute hunger this winter. The IRC are members of the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC) who have launched an emergency appeal to combat widespread hunger in Afghanistan. When emergencies hit, the DEC brings together leading UK aid charities to raise funds quickly and efficiently. We are proud to join this effort to ensure that people impacted by disasters are able to survive, recover, and rebuild their lives.

How was the 2022 Emergency Watchlist compiled?

Combining analysis of 66 different indices and databases with insights from the IRC’s over 30,000 staff and volunteers working in crisis zones around the world, the Watchlist scores countries at risk for “human threats” (political instability, armed conflict, economic collapse) and for “natural threats” (floods earthquakes, disease). This approach—which is now tried, tested, and shown to work—allows the IRC to identify the 20 countries at greatest risk of experiencing a significant deterioration in their humanitarian situations over the year ahead. Learn more.

Children play with their friends in front of their home in Al Buraiqeh, a village on the outskirts of Aden, Yemen.
Across the country, 85% of Yemenis have been left without basic health care.
Photo: Kellie Ryan/IRC

What needs to be done to address these crises?

The IRC’s expert analysis has identified how the global system designed to protect civilians, prevent conflict, hold abusers to account, and guarantee that humanitarian aid reaches those in need is failing at all levels — and even driving conflict and suffering. For example:

Just 21 peace agreements were signed in 2020, the fewest since the Cold War.

Governments and armed groups are attacking civilians without consequences during conflict. Nearly 84% of civilian deaths in the past decade were in Watchlist countries.

In the 2010s, the U.N. Security Council veto was used more than twice as much as in the 1990s, mostly in conflicts where Council members have a direct interest (for instance Syria).

Despite record humanitarian need, less than half of all required humanitarian funding has been received this year (47%). 

The IRC is calling for significant changes to the global humanitarian system, not only in how organisations and governments allocate and spend funds, but also in how they confront “conflict actors who use hunger as a weapon of war and civilian suffering as a tool of control,” writes David Miliband. The report makes the case for political and structural reforms that will create respect for international humanitarian law, expand universal jurisdiction to prosecute war crimes, reduce the role of social media in amplifying conflict, and ensure people in need have access to lifesaving services.

Read more in the full 2022 Emergency Watchlist report.