Mogadishu, Somalia, September 17, 2026 — Heavy rainfall linked to the El Niño weather pattern has resulted in flooding in parts of Mogadishu, Somalia, and the International Rescue Committee (IRC)-supported Ariif Health Centre has already been affected. IRC health teams are on the ground now assessing the damage to the facility, staff resources, and its ability to keep serving patients.
A super El Niño is expected to impact Somalia, with forecasters now putting the chance of above-normal rainfall across central and southern Somalia at more than 90%, with a chance that parts of the country could see more than 400 millimetres between October and December. If heavy rains continue and the Shabelle and Juba rivers break their banks, flash flooding could devastate dozens of towns and villages across the river. The last time these conditions came together, in 2023, floods displaced 1.2 million people. Somalia's rainy season typically peaks in October, and the IRC is closely tracking the river through the rest of the month. Any further flooding would strain a health system already stretched thin, where access to care is limited and resources to respond to a new emergency are scarce.
"We are deeply alarmed to already be seeing the intensity of the impact of El Niño in Mogadishu," said Richard Crothers, IRC Somalia Country Director. "This week’s heavy rain has disrupted operations at the Ariif Health Centre, a facility local families depend on for essential care, and communities here have little room left to absorb another shock."
Ahead of this year's rains, the IRC worked with communities, local partners and Somalia's disaster management agency (SoDMA) to get ahead of the flooding before it hits. Teams have identified families most at risk of being affected in order to support them through cash assistance so they can buy food, access clean water, and protect livestock instead of selling off assets or pulling children from school. The IRC has also trained SoDMA and local partners on how to forecast floods so river levels on the Shabelle and Juba are being watched closely as the season builds..
"In Beledweyne, where the Shabelle river bursts its banks again and again, the IRC and its partners are ready to transfer $190 to 1,100 households in the most exposed areas. These funds will be released the moment the river reaches agreed upon levels. Before the rains started, IRC supported communities through cash assistance, early warnings, and supplies to families and health facilities before the worst hits," Crothers said. "We need donors to fund the emergency response, while there is still time to act, so we can protect health and other critical services and the people who rely on them."
