Berlin, Germany , October 22, 2025 — The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has released a new policy brief, “Navigating the Climate Crisis in a New Era of Aid,” ahead of the Berlin Climate Security Conference, calling for urgent global action to protect communities living at the intersection of climate crisis and armed conflict. The report reveals that 17 conflict-affected, climate-vulnerable countries—home to just 11% of the world’s population—account for 70% of humanitarian need and 70% of those facing crisis levels of food insecurity. Yet, in 2022, they received only 12% of adaptation finance allocated to developing countries.
The report underscores the devastating impact of a shrinking aid landscape. Between 2013 and 2023, development assistance to these 17 countries dropped by over 40%, even as climate shocks intensified and conflict persisted. Countries like Afghanistan and Yemen face potential losses of over 10% of their Gross National Income due to anticipated aid cuts. Meanwhile, climate finance increasingly favors stable, low-risk environments. Only 2% of global adaptation finance comes from private sources—almost none of it reaching conflict zones. As climate impacts grow more severe, the cost of inaction is rising: every $1 spent on early risk reduction saves up to $15 in post-disaster recovery.
In contrast to reactive approaches, the IRC advocates for anticipatory action—using climate forecasts and early warning systems to trigger support before crises hit. IRC’s “Follow the Forecasts” model, already in use in countries like Somalia and Afghanistan, has proven that pre-arranged, data-driven response saves lives and livelihoods. For example, in drought-affected Afghanistan, the IRC delivered cash support to 2,800 households before harvest failure and food insecurity escalated, using long-range weather forecasts. Still, anticipatory action accounts for less than 1% of global humanitarian funding today—and is declining, even as risks grow.
The IRC is calling on donors and climate actors to reverse this trend by taking the following steps:
- Commit to a new, equitable adaptation finance target at COP30 that prioritizes the most vulnerable and allocates adaptation funding based on needs with at least 19% reaching climate-vulnerable, conflict-affected countries.
- Shift from loan-based to flexible, grant-based funding, particularly in fragile contexts where debt burdens and delivery risks are high.
- Scale up anticipatory action and pre-arranged financing, including adopting IRC’s “Follow the Forecasts” model and meeting the 5% Grand Bargain target for anticipatory action in humanitarian budgets by 2026.
- Invest in early warning systems and evidence-based, adaptive and cost-efficient resilience programming for conflict-affected communities.
Support locally led, inclusive adaptation efforts by funding civil society and women-led organizations often best positioned to reach at-risk populations - only 14% of adaptation finance in climate-vulnerable, conflict-affected countries currently reaches NGOs.