Across fragile and conflict-affected settings, climate change is steadily eroding the livelihood systems that sustain households and local economies while driving growing humanitarian need. In Somalia and South Sudan, increasingly severe droughts, floods, and extreme heat intersect with conflict, displacement, weak governance, economic fragility, and declining humanitarian assistance, leaving agro-pastoral communities caught in a growing double bind: the livelihoods they have traditionally relied upon are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain, yet safe and viable alternatives remain out of reach. 

Through Livelihoods Transformation (LT), the International Rescue Committee’s new climate research and innovation initiative, the Airbel Impact Lab and IRC country teams are working with communities and local stakeholders to strengthen existing livelihoods where they remain viable while building pathways for households to diversify, transition, or pursue mobility safely and voluntarily, on their own terms.

In this case study, we examine how and why livelihood systems are coming under pressure in Mudug, Somalia, and Panyijiar and Renk, South Sudan, and identify opportunities to expand communities’ choices before crisis becomes collapse. Drawing on interdisciplinary research bridging systems thinking, behavioral science, and human-centered design, the report presents our emerging portfolios of locally led solutions—from ecosystem restoration, climate-resilient agriculture, and livestock support to livelihood diversification, stronger market systems, and innovative financing mechanisms. It calls for earlier investment in integrated, systems-based approaches that protect viable livelihoods, support credible pathways to change, and ensure that communities can stay when they can, move when they must, and do both with dignity.

Available documents & links