New York, NY, April 13, 2026 —  A new International Rescue Committee (IRC) paper warns that a sharp contraction in global aid is colliding with record humanitarian need—creating a widening gap with life-and-death consequences for millions.

The policy paper, The New World Disorder: Rethinking Aid in an Era of Scarcity, argues this is not a temporary shortfall but a structural shift driven by geopolitical competition, declining cooperation, and a retreat from long-term international commitments. 

Today, 239 million people need humanitarian assistance and 831 million live in extreme poverty, even as aid may have fallen by as much as $50 billion—over 23%—in 2025. Further exacerbating the current dynamic only 25% of aid is directed to fragile and conflict-affected states, where nearly 90% of global need and 50% of global extreme poverty is concentrated.

The paper argues this gap is not accidental—it reflects a deeper breakdown in the global system. The post-war rules-based order is giving way to a more fragmented “New World Disorder,” defined by rising geopolitical competition, short-term transactional alliances, and the erosion of protections for civilians and aid delivery. Conflicts are more numerous, longer-lasting and more complex, with shifting alliances and fewer diplomatic solutions. The result is a “dangerous divergence” as needs surge and global support collapses.

The wars in Iran and Lebanon are further accelerating needs in an already over-stretched humanitarian system. These crises are compounding global shocks, driving up food, fuel and fertilizer prices while disrupting supply chains and increasing the cost of delivering aid worldwide. At the same time, cuts to aid are not only reducing access to food, healthcare, and protection—the cuts risk deepening instability by eroding livelihoods and basic services in fragile settings, increasing the likelihood of further conflict and displacement.

David Miliband, President and CEO of the IRC, said: “The future of international aid should be driven by the imperative to save lives, alleviate suffering and preserve dignity.  That means a focus on the conflict-affected populations that constitute the majority of the extreme poor, and a focus too on proven, cost-effective programs. A fraction of the sums being committed to conflict, when invested in high quality programs, would help mitigate the trends towards a cycle of disorder. Aid agencies: we need to make the money go further. The donors need to put clients front and center. The new frontiers of the technological revolution must be harnessed in service of those who need it most, not just those who pay the highest price. We need innovation not only in what we deliver, but in how we deliver it.”

Despite shrinking resources, the IRC highlights that proven, cost-effective solutions already exist but are underutilized. Civil society organizations (CSOs), often the only actors able to operate in hard-to-reach areas, deliver measurable impact in fragile settings. 

One example is the IRC-led REACH immunization program, which has delivered 30 million vaccine doses since 2022, reaching nearly 2 million children, including 750,000 zero-dose children, while reducing costs to under $1 per dose. REACH demonstrates the kind of intervention required in this moment: scalable, cost-effective, locally delivered, and able to maintain impact even in conflict settings where traditional systems fail. Yet donor approaches frequently prioritize government-led delivery models that fail to reach crisis-affected communities where governments are unable or unwilling to provide services.

The level of disruption, disorder and need serve as a galvanizing call to action for participants of the Spring Meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). The report calls for an urgent reset of how aid is funded and delivered, including:

Together, these steps can ensure limited resources are directed where they deliver the greatest impact. This moment—and the millions of human lives dependent on effective, focused, and sustained assistance - requires that transformation today.