Since the fall of the Assad-led government in late 2024, nearly 690,000 Syrian refugees are reported to have returned to Syria from neighboring countries. However, while estimates suggest the number of returns could reach 1.5 million by the end of the year, a significant majority of refugees currently hosted in neighbouring countries are unlikely to return in the near term. With many citing continued concerns over safety, lack of services, and limited economic opportunities in Syria.

To better understand these dynamics, the IRC has conducted three rounds of Regional Rapid Intentions Surveys in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkiye. Gathering insights from over 3,000 Syrian households representing more than 17,000 Syrian refugees. The latest results show that while a significant number – 29% - do currently intend to return—up from 17% in March— the majority either remain unsure – 37% - or do not intend to return at all -34%. Highlighting the need for continued support and durable solutions in these contexts.

IRC’s Syrians on the Move Briefing provides further analysis of the Survey results. Highlighting how the future movement of Syrians will continue to be a dynamic process, highly influenced by evolving conflict patterns, security concerns, access to basic services, social networks, economic opportunities, and an overall changing perception of stability in both Syria and in host-countries.

Available documents & links